This is a piece I wrote for the latest edition of the University of Sheffield’s pH7 science blog. Extreme weather is an issue we need to start talking about in the wake of our changing climate. Just this weekend in Sheffield, we’ve experienced gale-force winds, rain, sleet and some occasional sun. The weather seems to be more and more unpredictable each year and last month saw unseasonably high temperatures. Here are my thoughts on the record breaking temperatures of February 2019.
The last week of February saw temperatures soar across the UK. Everywhere, people took to the parks, ice creams in hand, to bask under bright blue skies and glorious sunshine. No one can deny that weather this beautiful is unheard of in February. Temperatures this high are so unusual that they were actually record breaking. The UK’s record for February was set in 1998, when temperatures in Greenwich reached 19.7 °C. Incredibly, a high of 20.6 °C was recorded in Trawsgoed, Wales on 25th February 2019. This is the first-time temperatures have topped 20 °C in winter.
After the chilly winter months, I enjoyed the warmth on my skin as much as the next person. However, the warm weather gave me a sense of uneasiness I found impossible to ignore. This time last year, ‘the Beast from the East’ was raging across the UK. Temperatures were sub-zero, and snow covered the landscape. I know I wasn’t the only one concerned by this drastic change in weather events, as people took to the internet to compares photos of the same locations taken in February 2018 and 2019. I found these images particularly stark: https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/what-a-difference-a-year-makes-pictures-highlight-change-in-february-weather/amp/
Clearly, we are experiencing more extreme weather events year on year…but why? Are these one off, freak events or evidence of long-term climate change?
High pressure air and the Foehn effect:
The Met Office attributed the warm weather of February 2019 to two things: the first being unusually high pressure across continental Europe. This brought warm air from the Canary Islands and North Africa across the continent, warming the UK in the process. Secondly, they claim the Foehn effect brought temperatures away from the norm. This is where high humidity winds flow over mountains, condense, and forms clouds. Heavy rain occurs on one side of the mountain, but the air gets warmer and drier as it sinks on the other side. The UK sits under this warm, sinking air, creating the sunny conditions seen in the last week of February.
While these climatic processes explain the unusual heat of February 2019, we need to think about why climatic interactions themselves are changing. We wouldn’t normally see such high pressure air moving across Europe at this time of year, so why did it happen in 2019? Meteorologists are now considering the extent to which these unusual weather events can be attributed to man-made climate change.
What do the experts say?
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, conducted a study on UK temperature data and found February’s high temperatures to be “at least a one in 200-year event.” This event was so exceptional that climate scientists are having to rethink their models. Temperatures deviated so far from the norm that models could not account for such extreme change. Professor James Screen, a climate scientist from the University of Exeter, claims “it’s very hard to say that a couple of days of good weather is because of climate change.” However, he does confirm that we are seeing an increase in extreme heat events due to increasing mean global temperatures. We have already seen evidence of this in recent decades. For example, around 500 years of temperature data show that the five coldest years range from 1695 to 1902. The five hottest years have all occurred since 2005. While experts are not yet sure the events of February 2019 can be fully accounted for by climate change, there is little doubt it played a part.
But, why should we care?
The sun is shining, you’re outside enjoying a cold one with friends – the last thing you want to think about is the impending threat of climate change. However, in 2003, a heatwave across Europe caused 70,000 deaths. Climate studies showed this extreme heat was attributable to man-made warming. Carbon emissions are severely impacting human well being. We have already caused a 1 °C increase in global temperatures and, according to a major UN report, we have ‘locked in’ an additional 0.5 °C. If we reach 2 °C warming, it is predicted that 411 million people will suffer from water shortages.
As an ecology student, I’m concerned with how extreme events impact wildlife. The heat of February 2019 has seen species such as hedgehogs, bats and dormice coming out of hibernation too early. This puts them at risk of death as they are using up fat stores they need to reserve at this time of year. They are also waking up before their primary plant food sources have bloomed, meaning they suffer food shortages, a process known as ‘trophic mismatch.’
Final thoughts…
We really need to ‘sober up’ to the realities of our impact on the climate – a thought shared by Green Party MP, Caroline Lucas. Lucas feels time is running out. The government is going backwards on climate action. This is not surprising when you hear that the first climate debate in parliament for two years was barely attended by MPs. In the wake of impending issues such as Brexit, climate action seems to be low on the government’s priority list. However, Lucas claims she finds, “huge hope from the rising tide of activism” after students took to the streets to demand climate action last month. Public acknowledgement of climate change will put pressure on the government to change legislation. So, in Lucas’ words: “if sunbathing in February doesn’t feel right to you, get out on the streets instead.”
Check out these links for more information on the heat wave of February 2019:
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47360952
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-47371648
- https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/02/uk-temperature-jump-february-incredible-climate-weather-carbon
- https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/uk-weather-heatwave-climate-change-global-warming-february-met-office-a8797136.html
- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/25/uk-weather-hottest-february-day-record-britain-temperature-reaches/
Bees, Trees & Curiosities 